Will the India-Canada diplomatic standoff affect visa services?

The downturn in the already frosty ties between India and Canada has led to uncertainty among visa applicants, with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) saying that New Delhi “reserves the right to take further steps” following Ottawa’s charges against its diplomats. The fallout may have a bearing on how visa processes are handled, potentially affecting students.
With India expelling six Canadian diplomats and announcing the withdrawal of its High Commissioner and other officials, the downsizing is likely to squeeze operations further. This could possibly lead to a cut in the number of visas allowed, which are already lower than in previous years due to a strain in ties over the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Nijjar in Canada.
Canada has already withdrawn more than two-thirds of its diplomats and has reduced the number of local staff at its missions since last September after ties nosedived following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that Indian agents were behind the killing of Nijjar.
India, which had called the allegations absurd, had then suspended issuing visas to Canadian citizens for about a month. Thus, no Canadian citizen could apply for an Indian visa even through Indian missions in third countries.
Since a majority of these visas are cornered by Indian-origin people coming to India to meet their families, the move caused considerable hardships for the diaspora.
However, Indian-origin Canadians who had a valid Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card, or a valid long-term visa for India, were not impacted. India resumed visa services in a gradual manner in November 2023, with business and medical visas being prioritised first.
Canada had also temporarily suspended visa and in-person consular services in Bengaluru, Chandigarh, and Mumbai.
Moreover, India and Canada are yet to resume direct air connectivity post the Covid-19 pandemic.
Canada remains one of the top destinations for Indian immigrants, with thousands of applications being processed yearly for permanent residency, work permits, and study visas.
Earlier this year, Canada capped the number of international student visas at 360,000 for a period of two years, cutting it by 35% from 2022. The move affected India the most as Indian students make up over 41% of the country’s international student population. Fewer visas meant fewer Indian students travelling to Canada for a college degree.